How long does it take to mail something

If you’ve come to this article to find out how long it can typically take for a letter to be delivered, the short answer is this: Local First Class Mail will typically deliver in 2-3 days. (“local” generally means in the same city or state). domestically, first-class mail should be delivered in 3-5 days, depending primarily on the distance it must travel. During the pandemic, delivery times may be delayed an additional 2-3 days. The following article is a technical analysis of how the Postal Service measures its performance in meeting these goals.] The Postal Service is proposing to change the way it measures the performance of First Class Mail’s on-time service. Instead of hiring a third party to assess how long it takes to deliver mail, the postal service wants to count the days itself. The change requires approval from the Postal Regulatory Commission, and yesterday several stakeholders and postal watchdogs submitted comments to the PRC’s pi2015-1 file.

the current system is called external measurement first class (exfc). the postal service has been using this system since 1990. as the postal service explains in one of its quarterly performance reports:

“exfc is a rigorous external sampling system that measures the time from when mail is deposited in a collection box or on a driveway until it is delivered to a home or business. exfc measures transit time for one-piece first class cards, letters and flat envelopes and compares this actual service to service standards.”

The exfc system is run by an independent third party, ibm, and measures the end-to-end time it takes to deliver mail. The participants, known as drippers and reporters, are supposed to be kept confidential, and the entire process is supposed to take place without managers and workers knowing what pieces are being tested. test mail is statistically analyzed based on sample volume, mail characteristics, and the location where the mail was entered and delivered.

exfc test results are posted quarterly on the usps website here. (for earlier quarters, just change the dates in the url).

The results generally show that the postal service is meeting its targets for first-class mail, with about 95 percent delivered within the service standard for overnight and 2-day mail and about 85 percent for overnight mail. mail from 3 to 5 days.

It should be noted that this high level of performance may be declining as a result of new service standards that were introduced earlier this year, which allowed the postal service to make significant changes to the way mail is processed. there have been many anecdotal reports of delays and it is likely that less mail will meet service standards.

In a motion filed yesterday, the apwu says simply that: “At this time, the majority of mail processing facilities across the country, including winning and losing facilities, are listed for consolidation or closure. The scores exfc show after 12 weeks that mail is being delayed.”

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Service performance results for the second quarter of the fiscal year (January-March) have not yet been released, but will likely show exactly what apwu claims.

the new measurement system

For several reasons, the postal service wants to change the measurement system from exfc to what it calls service performance measurement (spm). under the proposed system, the postal service would do the metering itself, rather than using an outside third party, and would take advantage of the fact that much mail is now barcoded.

mail carriers scanned barcoded mailpieces from randomly selected collection points (collection boxes and office building hoppers). Instead of having a reporter mark when a mail is received, the carrier would scan the barcode to mark the delivery time. Collection and delivery points would be selected based on a statistical design to ensure they are representative of the population being measured. (Details of the new system are outlined in the plan submitted by the USPS to the PRC here.)

The new system is essentially an idea recommended by a USPS IGO report in September 2012 (FF-AR-12-006: “Assessment of First Class External Measurement System Audit Report”). The IGO concluded that with barcodes and handheld scanners, the postal service could automate the service delivery process, eliminate the need for costly manual recording and reporting, and do the work in-house rather than pay a third party.

the oig also suggested that a new system might be less vulnerable to the “gambling” problem. That’s when management and staff can identify which pieces of mail are potentially being tested and then give them preferential treatment to boost performance scores. there have been many incentives to do so, as bonuses and salary increases are said to depend on these scores.

concerns about the plan

To implement the new measurement system, the postal service needs approval from the postal regulatory commission, so for the past few weeks, the people’s republic of china, stakeholders and a couple of postal watchdogs have been reviewing the details of the new system. Several issues have been raised and comments have been submitted pointing to potential issues.

in comments submitted by the public representative of the people’s republic of china, the pr suggests that the new system is “a step in the right direction” because it is technology-driven (it uses barcodes and scanners), but ” many aspects related to the underlying methodology and measurement results are unclear.”

pr is concerned that the proposed spm system does not measure the same end-to-end delivery time as exfc. in exfc, ​​the start time is when mail is put into a collection mailbox. (The “dropper” puts the mail in the mailbox and records the time.) In the spm system, the start of the clock is unknown, so it must be determined, using the collection date and time and a “tuning methodology” described in the postal service proposal. but whichever method is used, there will still be uncertainty about the date and time the correspondence entered the mail flow.

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the rp also expresses concern about how the new system transitions from a real postage to a “virtual” postage. exfc measures the end-to-end performance of actual mail pieces sent by droppers and received by reporters. the new spm system creates what the pr calls a “virtual” piece of mail.

That’s because the SPM doesn’t track the delivery time of a particular piece of mail. Insead, it measures a statistical composite that averages, weights, and combines mailpieces on three different stages of the End-to-End delivery process — First Mile, Processing Operation, and Last Mile. This method puts much more significance on the quality of the statistical design and the accuracy of sampling.

Another issue addressed by the public representative is costs. The current metering system costs about $40 million a year (not all of it for EXFC per se). the postal service says the new system will cost about $12 million for support from outside providers, but the rp points out that there are also the costs of implementing spm (about $11 million) and internal costs for which the postal service won’t offer an estimate in general, the new system may cost more than the current one, which would completely undermine one of the main reasons for switching to the new system.

Other comments filed with the People’s Republic of China address the fact that, under the new system, the postal service will no longer use an independent third party. that’s one of the main concerns in the comments submitted by apwu.

apwu notes that messing with the system was always an issue with exfc, ​​as discussed in that 2012 oig report. but it could become an even bigger issue with spm. A related problem is that employees can be blamed and disciplined when EXFC goals are not met, even when they may not have had anything to do with the delays. The union is concerned that these problems could be made worse by SPM.

The gaming issue is also discussed in comments submitted by Postal Supervisors David Popkin and Douglas Carlson.

In his comments, Popkin recalls instances where postal employees were caught tampering with the system and suggests “there were probably many more instances where this happened.” he wonders if the new system will really solve the problem.

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in his comments, carlson suggests that one way to address the problem would be to scan a larger proportion of the collection mail than is currently proposed. supervisors and employees would have to assume that test mail could be in all collection mail bins, which (if I understand the idea correctly) would probably reduce game potential.

another problem with the proposed spm has to do with what mail is being tested. It turns out that the system will not include mail that is left for the carrier in a drop box, which is the most common method of sending first-class mail in one piece. The EXFC system also doesn’t test mail picked up by the carrier, but the postal service says that mail entered at collection points like blue boxes and post offices “serve as reasonable representatives for mail left in customer mail receptacles.” /p>

Carlson points out that there are often instances where the carrier does not return to the post office on their route before the last dispatch truck leaves. that’s a problem in the current system, and it will continue to be a problem in the new system. As a solution, he suggests carriers can scan their routes’ pickup mail every hour to measure the time to the first mile.

One way to address some of these various concerns would be to run the exfc and smp systems simultaneously for a period of time so that the results can be compared. Carlson makes this recommendation, as do comments submitted by a group of shippers that includes the Association for the Postal Trade, Idealliance, and the National Association of Presort Shippers.

there are still more problems to be addressed. yesterday, the apwu filed a motion requesting that the prc pose a series of additional questions to the postal service. The APWU wants to know how much the Postal Service is paying IBM for the sampling software program that SPM will use, what safeguards the Postal Service will implement to identify errors and cover-ups by management, and whether management will receive financial incentives for scores. tall.

the people’s republic of china will continue to review the new performance service system in the coming weeks. a final ruling should come sometime this summer.

It seems likely at this point that the postal service will eventually switch to the new system, but the commission may want these concerns (and others) addressed, one way or another.

(photo credit: “waiting for mail” by grant wright christian, 1937-38; woman receiving mail; graphic).

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